Tag: UPRO

Up $27,000 in one Day!

by Charles, posted in Uncategorized

Screenshots, one day performance, one year performance – none of it matters! When I see posts like that I think of a casino advertisement showing jackpot winners. We know people win in a casino, but we also know that the odds of me walking into a casino and walking out with more money are not great.

With investing results it isn’t quite the same because unlike a casino the stock market is rigged in your favor. Monkeys can throw darts at a wall to pick stocks and make money overtime. It isn’t hard. The real question is are you getting results above and beyond pure luck or beyond other investment alternatives such as an index fund etc.

Yesterday my account really was up $27,000 as shown in the screenshot, but it was also down by $12,000 just the other day like I mentioned. Furthermore, you don’t know what my overall net worth is. Plus for all you know I’m just good at photoshop or it done on Fiverr. Yeah I am trying to get you attention with this screenshot, but I’m also telling you it is meaningless.

That is why I use a third party to verify my trading in several different accounts. You don’t have to just join some discord community and sift through all kinds of junk with people posting good testimonials and wonder if that was 1/100 people or really representative of the crowd. All you have to do is go to my strategies page and click the links to the third party verifier to see the results and follow the ongoing strategies. If you don’t have the time follow the trading you can even set up your brokerage account to copy me.

For the most part my strategies did not do much in terms of trading. I did rebalance some out of UPRO and into TQQQ. Other than that things have mostly stayed the same since yesterday.

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This is not investment advice for you. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site contains generic information that does not have the capability of taking your personal risk tolerance, goals, assets, or other factors into account. Therefore, this site and all of its related content is for entertainment, informational, and educational purposes only.

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Backtesting Blind Buying UPRO to 1913

by Charles, posted in SVIX via VXX Puts

I want to take another look at mimicking UPRO going back to 1913. Of course, UPRO didn’t arrive until around 2010, but with a little math and coding we can simulate what a similar set of holdings may have been like since 1913.

In blue you can see actual UPRO. In green you can see an estimate of SPXTR (the total S&P 500 return with dividends reinvested). In red we can see a synthetic UPRO calculated using 3 times the monthly return of SPXTR. An obvious problem with that is that it doesn’t account for leverage costs of expense ratios. To make a simple estimate as shown in yellow I have taken the SPXTR monthly return, multiplied it by 3, subtracted a 1% annualized expense ratio, and subtracted 2 times the ten year treasury yield.

Now I know this isn’t a perfect calculation for a synthetic UPRO since institutions borrow at shorter term rates and the fund uses a daily multiplier not a monthly one. This is just a way among many of estimating and I have chosen inputs that will let us go back to 1913. The 2 year yield doesn’t go back that far in my data set.

Now that we we can see the rough estimate is atleast in the ballpark let’s look at the full length view going back to 1913 – which is the first year for US10Y data on tradingview.

Continue reading “Backtesting Blind Buying UPRO to 1913” →

Does Trade Drawdown Matter?

by Charles, posted in collective2 forums, collective2.com, How I Invest 1, Leveraged ETFs

The single trade drawdown of a strategy DOES matter. Recently someone seemed to express dislike for my strategy How I Invest 1 posting the comment:

and a 54% drawdown… with trades risking as much as 12% of capital:

Link

They also posted the screenshot below highlighting a trade where that cost the strategy roughly 12% of capital.

I have had some good conversations with this user before in other threads and have nothing against them. I am unsure exactly how they intend the statement and screenshot, but I take it to mean they are not impressed with my strategy. I appreciate their concern, but likely would disagree with their view of how problematic it is. Let me explain.

Continue reading “Does Trade Drawdown Matter?” →