Today I did a reallocation for the strategy into a new set of put options to mimic SVIX and took a look at the results of the strategy so far.
Continue reading “SVIX via VXX Puts October 2023”Author: Patience to Invest
SVIX via VXX Put Options
So far the tracking of SVIX via VXX put options hasn’t been perfect. I am still dialing in how I want to go about modeling a synthetic SVIX. Today though with an over 11% drop in SVIX the results were interesting…
Continue reading “SVIX via VXX Put Options”SVIX via VXX Put Update
Since SVIX is down about 9.41% as I write this I wanted to do a check in on the SVIX via VXX put strategy. Today C2 is showing the strategy currently down about 6% per the C2 dashboard. So I want to do a little check in to see how the strategy is doing.
Continue reading “SVIX via VXX Put Update”Actually Pretty Good
IMHO the highest probability of success for most investors is a buy and hold mix of index funds, assuming they can remain consistent. However, if people are willing to take on more risk and shoot for higher returns there may be strategies that make sense and can maybe yield a higher overall return – most likely with more volatility than the market.
Continue reading “Actually Pretty Good”2X Bitcoin Part 2
It seems as though to get the BITX synthetic to match the real I have to do 2X the daily on BTCUSD and subtract a daily return of 0.1%. That is a very steep drag. It may not be worth using BITX except for some rare circumstances if it is indeed that expensive to use.
Continue reading “2X Bitcoin Part 2”Bitcoin with Leverage
This is a quick and dirty early analysis that neglects the cost of leverage. I just wanted to get an idea as to whether this is even worth looking into. I recently became aware of BITX a 2X Bitcoin futures strategy and that Robinhood has generous margin requirements for BITO a 1X Bitcoin futures strategy. So this is a quick look at using leverage and investing in Bitcoin in the past.
Continue reading “Bitcoin with Leverage”BITO Option Replacement Lookback
(Edit: I believe I did discover a big cause of the discrepancy – dividends on BITO. ThinkOrSwims thinkback tool was showing numbers without dividends.)
Back on November 12, 2022 I made a post on the collective2.com forums about how I thought Bitcoin could be at a good buying point. I think whether Bitcoin succeeds or fails in the long run it will likely have reduced volatility eventually. However, I found that each time after Bitcoin dropped 70% the next 2 year return was an average of 2,595%. I don’t expect that to be the case, but I think the odds of a decent return are good enough to throw some money at. Since I made this point a little less than a year ago the return on Bitcoin has been about $27,157/$16,746-1 = 62%. That ain’t bad! But I wonder how would I have done had I replaced by Bitcoin purchase with BITO options back in November 12, 2022.
Continue reading “BITO Option Replacement Lookback”BITO Options Still Weird
A new expiration of BITO options recently became available. The January 16th, 2026 options with 849 days to expiration are now available, and I am considering buying some in my funny money account. BITO does have the downside of a management fee and futures costs. However, it has tracked the price movement of Bitcoin remarkably well over its almost two year existence.
I was looking at the call options and quite amazed at the tiny jump in ask price from a 10 strike to a 9 strike. I bought one contract at $5.65. I couldn’t get it to go any lower. The intrinsic value at the moment is $4.98 leaving only $0.67 in leverage cost to capture the price movement of an extremely volatile asset for over two years. That seems like a great deal to me. That is an about 5% cost (0.67/13.98) spread over the course of over two years. Meanwhile I only have to outlay about 40% of the capital leaving the other 60% to allocated to my algorithms and other investment models. Obviously there is risk that Bitcoin will perform poorly. Other than that this seem almost too good to be true. What am I missing?
AI TQQQ and Similar
For a while AI TQQQ has been one of the most interesting watchlist strategies for me on Collective2. It came up on one of my screens yesterday. So I think it would be a good time to take a quick look at it.
Thoughts
QuantTiger in my view has been one of the most reasonable interlocutors on the C2 forums. I remember when their strategy AI TQQQ SQQQ swing was the most popular on C2. I like that the manger is using trades own system with somewhere in the ballpark of $300,000 plus of trades own system capital across their systems. I really like that they don’t use margin and the strategy is usable in an IRA. They have said they are a data scientist and have been trading for over 20 years which I tend to believe though I can’t prove it. I am very impressed that they stuck with their system through 2022 and have come out on top already in 2023. That takes guts and the knowledge that what you are doing makes sense. I would be more inclined to trade the long the market only system since I believe betting against the market successfully in the long run is at such a statistical disadvantage. The fact that QuantTiger has done so well with the 3X and -3X QQQ system is honestly very impressive. Machine learning is something I am not familiar with myself. I don’t know how to gauge whether or not there is a machine learning algorithm that really will be robust and do well long-term versus something that has worked well in this particular period.
Market Comparison
It is easy to see that AI TQQQ only swing has smashed the returns of QQQ and TQQQ over the strategies existence. In fact it actually did even better in terms of total return than a 200 SMA filter of TQQQ.
However, the drawdown was better with the SMA filter as was the annualized return/max drawdown.
Conclusion
This strategy is very interesting to me and is on my list of strategies to potentially subscribe to in the future. I just need some spare funds available, and it would be nice to have a bit more clarity on the machine learning/why I should expect it to work in the future. I would consider taking a chance without extra information if I have enough spare funds I want to diversify decision making on.
Disclaimer
This is not investment advice. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site is generic and should not be used as the basis for any investment decisions. This is for entertainment and educational purposes only.
The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others.
Investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.
SP 500 Futures Scalper Part 2
In part 1 I discussed how I found the strategies by Chris Page as interesting though I wasn’t sure I would subscribe myself yet. I have been following some of Chris’s conversations on the collective2.com forums and have found them quite interesting. He has said several things that give me more confidence in his ability. For example, clearly believes being long biased in stocks is likely the smart move, he isn’t under the assumption that you can just easily dial down drawdowns and keep similar levels of return, and he isn’t under the assumption that a simple trend following moving average is the solution. Those for me are all good points. The concerns I have is that in the forums the discussions are coming off as frustrated with questions and frustrated recent moves. I still think the strategies could turn out to be really good, but I am still going to wait longer. I also want to ad that the backtesting to 2020 on 1 minute bars still concerns me. I see it as completely plausible that a 1 minute system going back to 2020 through now could work fantastic while not working well from 2008 to 2020 or from 2024 to 2030. So I would like to see some rational as to why the leader believes it is robust.
Current Conlusion
More time will be needed to show if this is really a strategy worth following for me. I have added this strategy to my watchlist. For now I will wait and observe and hope to get some indication that the strategy is a good one for me to follow.
Disclaimer
This is not investment advice for you. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site contains generic information that does not have the capability of taking your personal risk tolerance, goals, assets, or other factors into account. Therefore, this site and all of its related content is for entertainment, informational, and educational purposes only.
The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others. Should you decide to make or avoid any investments or use any service due to the information on this site or related information you assume full responsibility and risks and will not hold howiinvest.com it’s associated sites or its owners responsible. You also acknowledge investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.
How I Invest 