The difficulty in beating a market is that you must not only predict the future but you must predict it better than others. Until today I had never noticed the Iron Condor index CNDR. As shown below this index did quite well from the late 80s to about 2008. My guess is that this index of collecting option premiums did great in that time period because the option markets were not very efficient then and sellers had an advantage. Of course, overtime it is easy to lose an edge as more people discover it. I believe this is why this index has had a near zero return since 2008 and likely will have a long term near zero return going forward.

The other interesting thing is that even in the period that this index was doing very well the return was in the ballpark of the S&P 500 price return for much of the time as shown below.

Data like this is what makes it very difficult for me to trust youtubers like invest with henry that seem to present options strategies as a safe and easy way to make lots of money. IMHO that is a pipe dream.
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