This is one of the most interesting strategies I have seen in a while. It has done extremely well. The leader is a real person you can find on LinkedIn with what seems to be a very successful career. Chris Page has also given some very interesting details in his strategy descriptions and I find them quite compelling. Plus Collective2 has verified that the user is trading with real money in their own account. The trade leader has been very helpful and informative in the forums as well. The results so far for the strategy have also been very very good.
But before I consider allocating any money to any investment strategy I try to poke holes in it then only invest in it should I remain convinced the strategy is good. So in this post I am going to document myself trying to poke holes in the strategy. If anyone including Chris is reading this I hope you know that I can be wrong. This strategy could be the best investment opportunity of the decade. So please take no offense. This is just me documenting my process. I hope it is the investment strategy of the decade and I can’t poke holes in it – resulting in me investing it myself. This is simply my process.
Links
For sake of ease I am going to post the relevant links here.
Notes from Description
I love that the user trades this with real money. It makes me feel like there should be some motivation to not just blow up the account. I also like that the strategy is only trading S&P 500 futures. There is no weird manipulation of penny stocks etc.
I find it very interesting that the system is algorithmic and using AI that each weekend is tuned. Being tunned each weekend in my opinion isn’t inherently a good thing. It causes me to worry that things could be changed due to shorter-term performance being poor. I think performance chasing can cause problems in the long run.
I find it interesting that the strategy is running on a dedicated trading server with very small latency. I think that is interesting but it surprises me that it is mentioned. As a subscriber to a collective2 strategy there is inherently going to be some built in latency for subscribers. Therefore, it doesn’t seem to matter. I’m not saying there are not algo traders that do use latency differences to their advantage, but Collective2 in my opinion is inherently not the place for this. The trades in the strategy so far seem to not be so short in length that the 2ms latency would seem to matter though. All in all the latency discussion seems like something the user is proud of but doesn’t matter. That seems slightly odd to me.
The user says they have been trading as a full-time gig for the last five years. Normally I would just disregard that, but since they seem to be a person using their real name via linkedIn it does seem like a good thing. Of course, I never thought about this until just now but I guess it is possible someone could be utilizing the Chris Page without actually being Chris Page. You know like a catfisher. Chris Page doesn’t say anything on their LinkedIn about collective2 from what I can see. However, I think this is unlikely.
Long & Short strategies inherently cause me hesitation when a user regularly shorts appreciating assets such as stocks, treasuries, etc. The shorting concerns me because the odds are so strongly against having success shorting stocks long term. Even a really bad trader sticking to only going long has decent odds of making money. The odds of shorting the S&P 500 are much much lower.
I will say thought that I find it very impressive that the performance of the short trades is positive. That is a good sign.
The description mentions that the LIVE ROI since May 2022 is 93.5%. Now I would love to make 93.5% long-term but I can’t help think that it just isn’t realistic. So when i see see someone promote the strategy and highlight that it worries me. I’m sure I have done similar, but I don’t find it compelling. There are so many types of investment methods that give amazing returns like 93.5% for a year then do terrible in the following years.
I do like that the strategy is using the VIX index. I believe the VIX index is a decent indicator to be using, but I would like to see more details to really convince me.
Performance Analysis
At first glance this performance looks amazing and is very tantalizing. But I am here to poke holes right. The average leverage use is 4.66. That is a bit higher than I like but not crazy. Since this strategy is trading only S&P 500 futures I thought I would compare investing in the S&P500 with a buy and hold position of 4.66 leverage. The chart below is only monthly close data, so the intramonth drawdown was likely higher. Likewise the start date isn’t the exact same. I started at the end of January as the results are more conservative, but the results are actually better than the C2 strategy.
I don’t plan to buy and hold the S&P with that level of leverage, but this does seem to be evidence – not proof – that the performance of the strategy could just be a good streak. It is hard to say.
Current Conlusion
More time will be needed to show if this is really a strategy worth following for me. I have added this strategy but it just seems to plausible to me that the great performance is simply because it has been a good period of growth. For now I will wait and observe and hope to get some indication that the strategy is a good one.
Disclaimer
This is not investment advice for you. This website is designed to talk about investments but it is not designed to give you personalized investment advice. This site contains generic information that does not have the capability of taking your personal risk tolerance, goals, assets, or other factors into account. Therefore, this site and all of its related content is for entertainment, informational, and educational purposes only.
The owner of PatienceToInvest.com is also a trade leader on Collective2.com. We may receive compensation by promoting some collective2 strategies over others. Should you decide to make or avoid any investments or use any service due to the information on this site or related information you assume full responsibility and risks and will not hold howiinvest.com it’s associated sites or its owners responsible. You also acknowledge investing is risky and can result in the loss of all your capital and even more than your original capital in some cases.
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